It’s Saturday night and the biggest game in town is at Doc’s house tonight. Doc lives in a nice house and runs a popular home game in his basement twice a month. Its $100 buy in with no re-buys, you start with $5000 in chips and the blinds are 40 minutes. A nice deep stack tournament and there were 83 playing tonight. That’s right….83 people in a home game. Doc has 7 felt tables in his basement, needless to say it guts a little busy.
I have played well in Doc’s tourneys, even won one on them last October. Tonight, I’m sitting next to this tool that’s playing lots of hands and calling lots of raises with draws…and hitting them. He was the early chip leader at the table and I couldn’t wait to get a piece of him.
In the third round, blinds are 100/200 and I raise it to $600 with K-9 off suit on the button just to try a steal. The tool calls from the small blind, everyone else folds. Flop comes
Turn is a blank, he checks and I check behind, river is the King of hearts which gives me two pair. He checks, I figure no sense betting, he will either fold or call me with the flush. He turns over Q-5 of hearts. This is where it gets interesting.
As he is stacking his chips, I said “nice call on the flop” he said, “yeah, I always bet the odds”. Yeah, but I made a pot sized bet on the flop. He says, “I had 12 outs, times 2, times 2, so I was 48%, that’s 1-2, and I was getting 2-1 on the $1200 call. I always play the odds”
Oh, okay I said. Good call then I told him. He’s confusing winning percentage with pot odds. In reality, he has 12 outs (9 hearts and 3 queens) out of 47 unseen cards after the flop. That is roughly 1 out of 4 cards, not 1-2. Basically he is going to make a winning hand 1 out of every 4 times he plays it.
He had to call $1200 to win roughly $3600, getting 3-1 on his money. So if the odds held up he would have called $1200 4 times spending $4800, he would of hit his hand one of those 4 times and raked $3600. Overall, his call was -$1200 expected value (-EV). Nice call.
Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to bust him….but there’s always next month.